Up to 19 more PHL cyclones this year: PAGASA
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MANILA – The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts 13 to 19 tropical cyclones in the country between July and December this year.
Citing PAGASA's latest outlook, State weather specialist Anthony Lucero said the agency expects three or four TCs this July, two or three TCs in August and three or four TCs in September.
He also said PAGASA expects two or three TCs in October and the same count in November as well as one or two TCs in December.
It's still unclear where the expected TCs will pass, however, he clarified Tuesday (July 16) during a climate forum in Metro Manila.
Lucero also reported PAGASA expects near-normal rainfall in most parts of the country during 2013's second semester.
He likewise said the southwest monsoon will continue prevailing this month until September.
The northeast monsoon will dominate from October to December, he continued.
PAGASA's outlook further shows neutral conditions which are neither El Niño nor La Niña will likely continue in the tropical Pacific. "We don't expect to have significant change in the coming months," Lucero said.
He noted the neutral condition PAGASA projected is the same as forecasts of international institutions like Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and Japan's Tokyo Climate Center.
According to the US Climate Prediction Center, El Niño refers to above-average sea surface temperatures that periodically develop across east-central equatorial Pacific.
It represents the ENSO cycle's warm phase and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific warm episode.
The center also noted La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific.
It represents the ENSO cycle's cold phase and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode.
ENSO cycle is to the coherent and sometimes very strong year-to-year variation in sea surface temperature, convective rainfall, surface air pressure and atmospheric circulation that occur across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the center added.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite extremes in the ENSO cycle.