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MANILA - Inflation last month likely settled between 3.7-4 percent, according to Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co.
Metrobank's forecast range is narrower than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' projection of 3.4-4.3 percent for September. Inflation climbed to a seven-month high of 3.8 percent in August, but the eight-month average of 3.2 percent was near the low end of the BSP's full-year target of 3-5 percent.
The National Statistics Office is scheduled to release official inflation figures for September later this week.
In a research note, Metrobank ascribed its forecast to "elevated food prices coupled with a slight slowdown in energy prices."
"Food prices have slightly eased from August levels, but knock on effects from last month’s price surge kept prices at elevated levels and higher compared to the same month last year," said Mabellene Reynaldo, research analyst at Metrobank.
She said supply of fruits and vegetables, which took a hit during the August monsoon rains, remain unstable.
Food has the biggest weight in the computation of the Philippines' consumer price index.
"High global food prices also continue to buoy up local food inflation. Expect food prices to still be elevated for the fourth quarter as upside risks from seasonal demand are also factored in," Reynaldo said.
In contrast, energy prices eased in August, as the global oil market weakened amid flagging growth in China's manufacturing sector. This was reflected in price cuts at the pump throughout last month, as fuel costs fell 2.4 percent year-on-year, Reynaldo said.
The rollback in fuel prices also reduced by P1.3 per kilowatt-hour the cost of power bought by Manila Electric Co., she said.
"Expect inflation to remain elevated in the fourth quarter as local demand increases especially for food. The ensuing global slowdown however would prevent any sharp price appreciations from occurring, bringing domestic inflation still at manageable levels," she added.
Analysts are factoring in another 25 basis points cut in the BSP's policy rates before the year ends.
Citi on Tuesday said a fresh rate cut is possible if inflation stays moderate. DBS last Monday said Philippine export numbers would be key to any action the BSP would take before the year ends.
Exports have held up despite the slump in electronics, the Philippines' main shipment abroad.
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