Basketball

The PBAologist: 16 scenarios left in Philippine Cup elims

AKTV/Paul Ryan Tan

Only two playdates –- a total of four games — are left in the elimination round of the 2011-12 PBA Philippine Cup.

The remaining games are Shopinas.com against B-MEG and Barako Bull versus Barangay Ginebra on Thursday and Alaska going up against Rain or Shine and Barangay Ginebra taking on Talk ‘N Text on Sunday. The games will held at the SMART-Araneta Coliseum.

The eight-team quarterfinal cast has long been settled and two teams -– Alaska (3-10) and Shopinas.com (0-13) — are going to be on early vacation and preparation for the Commissioner’s Cup.

For the Aces, it will mark only the third time in the last 32 conferences, or since the 1999 season, that they won’t be advancing past the elimination round and the first time since the 2009 Fiesta Conference.

For the Clickers, a bad date with history beckons in its final game against red-hot B-MEG on Thursday, as they try to avoid recording the all-time longest losing streak in a conference and all-time worst start in a season.

As for the eight quarterfinalists, the pairings have yet to be determined and it will be based on how they finish the elimination round.

It will be No. 1-versus-No. 8 and No. 2-versus-7 with the top two having a twice-to-beat advantage.

The other two quarterfinals will be best-of-three affairs with No. 3 going up against No. 6 and No. 4 against No. 5 in the other.

So far, only Powerade has a lock on its finish. The Tigers, who will finish the elims at No. 8 no matter what happens in the last two playdayes, are either going to face defending champion Talk ‘N Text or B-MEG.

The Tropang Texters, with its 10 wins, are already assured of a top two finish as a result of its classic 80-78 win over Petron Blaze last Tuesday, even if it loses it last game against Barangay Ginebra on Sunday in the final game of the elims. If they beat the Kings, they will be No. 1 after the elims for an unheard of — at least for me — sixth straight conference.

B-MEG will finish the eliminations as the No. 1 team if it beats Shopinas.com Thursday and Talk ‘N Text loses to Ginebra. That’s because it has the better quotient against Talk ‘N Text if they both end up at 10-4.

Should the the Llamados lose to the Clickers — unlikely, but still a possibility — B-MEG will still end up in a playoff against Petron Blaze for the other twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals, no matter what happens in the remaining games. That’s because it’ll be B-MEG and the Boosters which will end up with superior PBA quotients in case of three-way or four-way ties at 9-5.

Which means Barangay Ginebra and Rain or Shine are already out of the race for a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals.

The Gin Kings are simply hoping not to fall to No. 7, which will mean a twice-to-win disadvantage in the quarterfinals against the No. 2 team. That will happen if they lose their two remaining games against Barako Bull on Thursday and Talk ‘N Text on Sunday.

For the complete picture on the remaining sixteen scenarios, please refer to the tables below.

In case of ties, the PBA quotient system will apply — total points for, divided by total points against, among teams involved only.

The plus-minus differentials were used in most of the ties below as references only since they are a bit similar and easier to compute. The only difference between the two systems is when two teams, for example, have the same point-differentials but not in the PBA quotient system.

A perfect example is in the 4-way tie possibility at 9-5 wherein Rain or Shine and Barangay Ginebra both have 9-5 records along with Petron Blaze and B-MEG and the Elasto Painters and the Kings have similar minus-11 differentials. But in the PBA quotient system, Rain or Shine turned out more superior largely because it scored more points in the games involved.

Scenario 1: If Shopinas.com, Barako Bull, Alaska, and Ginebra win
RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text104
2Petron Blaze95+4 pointsplayoff
3B-MEG95-4 pointsplayoff
4Rain or Shine86+50 points
5Ginebra86+3 points
6Meralco86-53 points
7Barako Bull77
8Powerade68
9Alaska410
10Shopinas.com113
Scenario 3: If Shopinas.com, Barako Bull, Rain or Shine and Ginebra win
RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text104
2Petron Blaze95+14 pointsplayoff
3B-MEG95-2 pointsplayoff
4Rain or Shine95+12 points
5Ginebra86+4 points
6Meralco86-4 points
7Barako Bull77
8Powerade68
9Alaska311
10Shopinas.com113
Scenario 5: If Shopinas.com, Ginebra, Alaska and Ginebra win
RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text104
2B-MEG95+8 pointsplayoff
3Petron95+2 pointsplayoff
4Ginebra95+10 points
5Rain or Shine86+49 points
6Meralco86-49 points
7Barako Bull68+35 points
8Powerade68-35 points
9Alaska410
10Shopinas.com113

Scenario 7: If Shopinas.com, Ginebra, Rain or Shine, and Ginebra win

RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text104
2Petron Blaze951.05 quoplayoff
3B-MEG951.04 quoplayoff
4Rain or Shine950.961 quo
5Ginebra950.959 quo
6Meralco86
7Barako Bull68+35 points
8Powerade68-35 points
9Alaska311
10Shopinas.com113

Scenario 9: If B-MEG, Barako Bull, Alaska, and Ginebra Win

RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1B-MEG104+8 points
2Talk 'N Text104-8 points
3Petron Blaze95
4Rain or Shine86+50 points
5Ginebra86+3 points
6Meralco86-53 points
7Barako Bull77
8Powerade68
9Alaska410
10Shopinas.com014

Scenario 11: If B-MEG, Barako Bull, Rain or Shine, and Ginebra Win

RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1B-MEG104+8 points
2Talk 'N Text104-8 points
3Petron Blaze95+10 points
4Rain or Shine95-10 points
5Ginebra86+4 points
6Meralco86-4 points
7Barako Bull77
8Powerade68
9Alaska311
10Shopinas.com014

Scenario 13: If B-MEG, Ginebra, Alaska, and Ginebra Win

RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1B-MEG104+8 points
2Talk 'N Text104-8 points
3Ginebra95+2 points
4Petron Blaze95-2 points
5Rain or Shine86+49 points
6Meralco86-49 points
7Barako Bull68+35 points
8Powerade68+35 points
9Alaska410
10Shopinas.com014

Scenario 15: If B-MEG, Ginebra, Rain or Shine, and Ginebra Win

RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1B-MEG104+8 points
2Talk 'N Text104-8 points
3Petron Blaze95+9 points
4Ginebra95+1 point
5Rain or Shine95-10 points
6Meralco86
7Barako Bull68+35 points
8Powerade68+35 points
9Alaska311
10Shopinas.com014

Scenario 2: If Shopinas.com, Barako Bull, Alaska, and Talk ‘N Text win
RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text113
2Petron Blaze95+4 pointsplayoff
3B-MEG95-4 pointsplayoff
4Rain or Shine86+49 points
5Meralco86-49 points
6Barako Bull772-0 record
7Ginebra770-2 record
8Powerade68
9Alaska410
10Shopinas.com113
Scenario 4: If Shopinas.com, Barako Bull, Rain or Shine and Talk ‘N Text win
RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text113
2Petron Blaze95+14 pointsplayoff
3B-MEG95-2 pointsplayoff
4Rain or Shine95+12 points
5Meralco86
6Barako Bull772-0 record
7Ginebra770-2 record
8Powerade68
9Alaska311
10Shopinas.com113
Scenario 6: If Shopinas.com, Ginebra, Alaska, and Talk ‘N Text win
RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text113
2Petron Blaze95+4 pointsplayoff
3B-MEG95-4 pointsplayoff
4Rain or Shine86+50 points
5Ginebra86+3 points
6Meralco86-3 points
7Barako Bull68+35 points
8Powerade68-35 points
9Alaska410
10Shopinas.com113

Scenario 8: If Shopinas.com, Ginebra, Rain or Shine and Talk ‘N Text win

RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text113
2Petron Blaze95+14 pointsplayoff
3B-MEG95-2 pointsplayoff
4Rain or Shine95-12 points
5Ginebra86+4 points
6Meralco86-4 points
7Barako Bull68+35 points
8Powerade68-35 points
9Alaska311
10Shopinas.com113

Scenario 10: If B-MEG, Barako Bull, Alaska, and Talk ‘N Text Win

RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text113
2B-MEG104
3Petron Blaze95
4Rain or Shine86+49 points
5Meralco86-49 points
6Barako Bull772-0 record
7Ginebra770-2 record
8Powerade68
9Alaska410
10Shopinas.com014

Scenario 12: If B-MEG, Barako Bull, Rain or Shine, and Talk ‘N Text Win

RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text113
2B-MEG104
3Petron Blaze95+10 points
4Rain or Shine95+10 points
5Meralco86
6Barako Bull772-0 record
7Ginebra770-2 record
8Powerade68
9Alaska311
10Shopinas.com014

Scenario 14: If B-MEG, Ginebra, Alaska, and Talk ‘N Text Win

RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text113
2B-MEG104
3Petron Blaze95
4Rain or Shine86+50 points
5Ginebra86+3 points
6Meralco86-53 points
7Barako Bull68+35 points
8Powerade68-35 points
9Alaska410
10Shopinas.com014

Scenario 16: If B-MEG, Ginebra, Rain or Shine, and Talk ‘N Text Win

RankTeamWinsLossesDifferentialPlayoff
1Talk 'N Text113
2B-MEG104
3Petron Blaze95+10 points
4Rain or Shine95-10 points
5Ginebra86+4 points
6Meralco86-4 points
7Barako Bull68+35 points
8Powerade68-35 points
9Alaska311
10Shopinas.com014

 

Fidel Mangonon III is the head of statistics for the Philippine Basketball Association. His column, The PBAologist, appears exclusively on InterAKTV. For more discussion on the ins and outs of the league, follow Fidel on Twitter.

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