SWS SURVEY | Public expectations fall for Duterte

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Rodrigo Duterte
Reuters file photo of President Rodrigo Duterte

MANILA – The number of adult Filipinos expecting President Rodrigo Duterte to fulfill most, if not all, of his promises fell to 35% – a 17-percentage-point decline – in the third quarter of 2017, the latest social Weather Stations Survey showed.

The 35% consists of 8% saying Duterte can fulfill “all or nearly all,” and 27% saying he can fulfill “most” of his promises.

The pollster said the 17-point decline in the national proportion of those saying Duterte can fulfill “all or nearly all” of his promises was due to double-digit declines in all areas.

The survey question was, “Sa inyong palagay, ilan sa mga pangako ni Pang. Rody Duterte ang posibleng matutupad? [LAHAT O HALOS LAHAT SA MGA PANGAKO, KARAMIHAN SA MGA PANGAKO, MGA ILAN SA MGA PANGAKO, HALOS WALA O WALA SA MGA PANGAKO] (In your opinion, how many of the promises of Pres. Rody Duterte can be fulfilled? [All or nearly all of the promises, Most of the promises, A few of the promises, Almost none or none of the promises])”.

Fifty-seven percent answered “a few,” and 6% said “none or almost none”.

 

The September 2017 proportion of those expecting most, if not all, of Duterte’s promises to be fulfilled is 15 points below the 52% (17% all or nearly all, 35% most) in March 2017. It was 63% (22% all or nearly all, 41% most) when first asked in June 2016, and 56% (15% all or nearly all, 41% most) in September 2016.

Comparison with past Presidents

For comparison, those expecting most, if not all, of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s promises to be fulfilled was 19% in September 2001. Sixty-four percent expected a few and 16% expected almost none or none.

For President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, those expecting most, if not all, of his promises to be fulfilled was 44% in September 2010. Fifty percent expected a few and 4% expected almost none or none.

Net satisfaction impacted

SWS said the level of expectations fulfilled also impacted the President’s net satisfaction rating. Duterte’s net satisfaction rating was Excellent among those expecting Most/All promises fulfilled, Good if expecting A Few fulfilled, Poor if expecting Almost None fulfilled Pres. Duterte’s net satisfaction rating (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) was higher among those expecting that most, if not all, of his promises can be fulfilled, compared to those who say only a few or almost none/none can be fulfilled.

It was an excellent +78 among those who say Duterte can fulfill all or nearly all of his promises, and an excellent +73 among those expecting he can fulfill most of his promises

 

It was a good +40 among those who say he can fulfill a few of his promises.

However, it was a poor -29 among those expecting almost none or none of Duterte’s promises can be fulfilled.

Across the country, the proportion of those saying Duterte can fulfill “all or nearly all” of his promises had declined by double-digits in all areas. It fell by 33 points in Mindanao, at 42% (10% all or nearly all, 32% most) in September 2017, from 75% (28% all or nearly all, 47% most) in March 2017

 

It fell by 11 points in Balance Luzon, at 34% (6% all or nearly all, 28% most) in September, from 45% (13% all or nearly all, 32% most) in March.

It fell by 13 points in Metro Manila, at 32% (9% all or nearly all, 23% most) in September, from 45% (14% all or nearly all, 31% most) in March.

It fell by 18 points in the Visayas, at 31% (10% all or nearly all, 21% most) in September, from 49% (17% all or nearly all, 32% most) in March.

The Third Quarter 2017 Social Weather Survey findings on people’s satisfaction with the performance of Pres. Rodrigo Duterte were reported on October 8, 2017.

The pollster explained its SWS terminology for Net Satisfaction ratings thus: +70 and above, “excellent”; +50 to +69, “very good”; +30 to +49, “good”; +10 to +29, “moderate”, +9 to –9, “neutral”; –10 to –29, “poor”; –30 to –49, “bad”; –50 to –69, “very bad”; –70 and below, “execrable.”]

The September 2017 Social Weather Survey was non-commissioned and was conducted from September 23-27, 2017 using face-to-face interviews of 1,500 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide, 600 in Balance Luzon and 300 each in Metro Manila, the Visayas and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, ±4% for Balance Luzon, and ±6% each for Metro Manila, the Visayas and Mindanao). The area estimates were weighted by Philippine Statistics Authority medium-population projections for 2017 to obtain the national estimates.

Expectations fall across locale and classes

Expectation that Duterte can fulfill most, if not all, of his promises fell by 20 points in rural areas, at 35% (8% all or nearly all, 27% most) in September 2017, from 55% (19% all or nearly all, 36% most) in March 2017

It fell by 14 points in urban areas, at 35% (9% all or nearly all, 26% most) in September, from 49% (15% all or nearly all, 35% most, correctly rounded) in March.

By class, expectation that Duterte can fulfill most, if not all, of his promises is now highest in class ABC, at 42% in September, although it is down by 7 points from 49% (12% all or nearly all, 37% most) in March

It fell by 17 points in class D, at 36% (9% all or nearly all, 27% most) in September, from 53% (16% all or nearly all, 37% most) in March. It fell by 23 points in class E, at 29% (7% all or nearly all, 22% most) in September, from 51% (22% all or nearly all, 29% most) in March.

Expectations decline among both men and women, and across age groups

Expectation that Duterte can fulfill most, if not all, of his promises fell by 16 points among men, at 36% (9% all or nearly all, 27% most) in September 2017, from 52% (18% all or nearly all, 34% most) in March 2017

It fell by 19 points among women, at 34% (7% all or nearly all, 27% most) in September, from 54% (17% all or nearly all, 37% most) in March.

By age group, it fell by 8 points among 25-34 year olds, at 44% (11% all or nearly all, 33% most) in September, from 52% (16% all or nearly all, 36% most) in March

It fell by 13 points among 18-24 year olds, at 41% (9% all or nearly all, 32% most) in September, from 54% (26% all or nearly all, 28% most) in March. It fell by 16 points among 35-44 year olds, at 34% (8% all or nearly all, 27% most, correctly rounded) in September, from 50% (14% all or nearly all, 36% most) in March. It fell by 26 points among 45-54 year olds, at 32% (6% all or nearly all, 26% most) in September, from 57% (19% all or nearly all, 38% most) in March. It fell by 26 points among 55 year olds and above, at 29% (8% all or nearly all, 21% most) in September, from 51% (15% all or nearly all, 36% most) in March. Expectations fall in all educational levels Expectation that Pres. Duterte can fulfill most, if not all, of his promises fell by 28 points among college graduates, at 41% (9% all or nearly all, 32% most) in September 2017, from 69% (17% all or nearly all, 52% most) in March 2017

It fell by 15 points among high school graduates, at 37% (8% all or nearly all, 29% most) in September, from 52% (18% all or nearly all, 34% most) in March. It fell by 13 points among elementary school graduates, at 34% (9% all or nearly all, 25% most) in September, from 47% (18% all or nearly all, 29% most) in March. It fell by 26 points among non-elementary graduates, at 27% (7% all or nearly all, 20% most) in September, from 53% (14% all or nearly all, 39% most) in March.