The results of the Second Quarter 2017 Social Weather Survey (SWS) yielded a balance of opinion about the effect of Martial Law on the Philippine economy bordering on the negative, even as 4 out of 10 respondents said they believed the situation in Mindanao is not likely to affect the economy.
The survey, fielded over the period June 23-26, 2017, found 24% of Filipino adults expecting the Philippine economy to get better, compared to 33% expecting it to get worse, and the rest expecting no effect on it, as a result of the declaration of Martial Law in Mindanao.
The SWS survey item about the expected effect of Mindanao Martial Law to the Philippine economy is non-commissioned, and was included on SWS’s own initiative and released as a public service.
According to SWS, “the resulting net -9 national balance of opinion (% better minus % worse) is on the lower borderline of what SWS classifies as “Neutral” (from +9 to -9).
“Unfavorable opinions in Balance Luzon and Visayas are countered by neutral opinions in Mindanao and Metro Manila.
“In Balance Luzon, the balance of opinion is net -14 (22% better versus 36% worse). In Visayas it is net -13 (24% better versus 37% worse). Such double-digit negative balances are classified by SWS as Moderately Unfavorable (between -10 and -29).
“In Mindanao, on the other hand, the balance of opinion is zero (27% better versus 27% worse), or exactly Neutral.
“In the National Capital Region, the balance of opinion is net -7 (the difference between 23% better and 29% worse, correctly rounded), which is still in the category of Neutral.
“Pessimism dominates among the 40% opposed to Martial Law in all of Mindanao.
“The balance of opinion on the effect of Martial Law on the Philippine economy is net -23 (17% better versus 40% worse) among the 29% who said Pres. Duterte should have declared Martial Law only in Marawi City and Lanao Del Sur only.
“The balance is a similar net -22 (20% better versus 42% worse) among the 11% who said Pres. Duterte should have declared Martial Law only in Marawi City, Lanao Del Sur, and nearby provinces. Thus, opinions are clearly unfavorable among the large minority 40% wanting a more limited geographic scope for Martial Law.
“On the other hand, the balance of opinion is a neutral +1 (28% better versus 27% worse) among the small majority 57% saying it was right that Martial Law was declared for all of Mindanao.”
The Second Quarter 2017 Social Weather Survey findings on people’s opinion about Pres. Duterte’s declaration of Martial Law in Mindanao were reported by SWS on July 11, 2017.
The Second Quarter 2017 Social Weather Survey was conducted from June 23-26, 2017 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide, 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, ±6% each for Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao).
The area estimates were weighted by Philippine Statistics Authority medium-population projections for 2017 to obtain the national estimates.
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